The final two party conferences are coming up over the next five days – for the Greens and finally the Conservatives respectively. How will politics look when Parliament returns for the run up to the Budget?
I guess going by the traditional political press, the likes of Chris Mason might be competing with GBeebies to give us the latest update from TeamNigel while accusing others of being obsessed with the same grouping, while Nicholas Watt may find himself subject to health and safety proceedings if he hasn’t exploded in anticipation at the prospect of the next ministerial resignation. I just throw those out as minor possibilities in the realm of crazy politics we’ve had in recent years…
…as explained by the Leader of the Opposition’s recent prnouncement against the Climate Change Act
…an announcement which, on the eve of the Green Party’s conference has been something of a political gift. Not that it will grab the headlines in what is becoming one of those weeks where lots of really awful news (such as the Manchester Synagogue attack that broke this morning, through to the gloom on what’s happening in US politics where the country is finding out the hard way how far people with power and influence are prepared to defend their country’s constitution).
“Where do the Tories go from here?”
I guess we will find out some of the answers in the next couple of weeks. Yet as Jack Kessler states here, there is a risk that they could just fade away. Their most immediate challenge is whether they can stop haemorrhaging votes and seats to TeamNigel both in the future by-elections and also in next year’s local and mayoral elections which include some traditionally big blue counties that will be getting new metro mayors for the first time – including Norfolk, Suffolk, and Sussex.
“What do the Tories think of the Tories?”
This is something that I know little of – and even less of now than I did say a decade ago because I don’t get to go to county council meetings that used to take place at the old Shire Hall. In those days when I rocked up with public questions, you could have brief conversations with councillors of all parties there before the meetings started. That’s something we’ve lost (in Cambridge for the county council at least) with the move to Alconbury of the county council. Although what happens to the building after 2028 remains to be seen as by then the new unitary council structures will be in place – and the firm view of Cambridge City Council is that the municipal authority should be based at The Guildhall. As things stand, Alconbury (being outside of ‘Greater Cambridge’) won’t be the headquarters of the unitary council for Greater Cambridge.
The only other sources I can think of off the top of my head are the social media ones – that all come with a pinch of salt due to the disinformation of anonymous accounts in that part of politics. (That’s not to say you don’t get it elsewhere – you do.) Wanting a break from national politics yesterday, ITV reminded me that their latest fly-on-the-wall offering is back for another series. One of the contestants is fairly well known online in blue party circles and somehow managed to get themselves evicted by the TV/online audience within 24 hours. Yet their social media feed had a question/statement that generated a striking set of responses about whether to stay with the blue party or join TeamNigel. There weren’t that many who were advising to stick with the blue party Furthermore, there were a handful of those advising joining TeamNigel who said the blue party had become too much like the Liberal Democrats!
Which was a new one on me.
Not least because most of the Conservatives that could have joined the Liberal Democrats had already done so under Boris Johnson’s purge of 2019 where the former Prime Minister replaced a series of longstanding MPs – in particular those who had pro-EU sympathies, with hand-picked loyalists, many of whom got elected in a contest that swept away a number of high profile politicians across the main parties – starting with former LibDem MP Jo Swinson.
Should the Tories double down on chasing the TeamNigel vote or change direction (and leader?) and try to head back to the middle ground? (If there is such a place).
Do they have anyone who is so disposed as to be willing, able, and competent enough to actually do it? And that’s before thinking winning over a hostile and hollowed-out Conservative movement that seems to be following the pied piper of the print press publication and the algorithm-driven clickbait produced by some of the online platforms.
Don’t assume that hard Brexiteer zone of politics is any more united than the Green-Left of politics
TeamNigel has already lost two MPs who have turned out to be even more extreme than their now former boss, threatening to take politics further into some very menacing places not seen since before the end of WWII. Furthermore, there is a firm strand within that part of politics that really does not like political violence – the sort we’ve seen at recent marches. Hence the polarisation between those going on marches and those that do not.
Over in another part of the political matrix, Labour is in that strange situation where they are now in government. (Easy to forget that the only people who have led majority-Labour Governments are Clement Attlee, Harold Wilson, James Callaghan, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, and now Sir Keir Starmer). Marches and protests tend to be a more left-wing thing anecdotally – although perhaps not nearly as frequent as in previous generations. For example the annual May Day / International Labour Day marches that used to happen – here’s an example from 1939. With a Labour government now in place, the willingness to take to the streets in a very big way through the trade union movement is not nearly as strong as it was when under a Conservative government. At the same time, the breakaway movement from Corbyn & Sultana’s Your Party (that seems to be stuck in permanent meetings with other far left groups) along with the rapidly-growing Green Party make for new challenges that Labour will have to face in next year’s local and mayoral elections.
“Any further news on the Corbyn/Sultana ‘Your Party’?”
Former Labour councillor Dave Baigent along with a handful of volunteers has been putting on a few local meetings along with various social media content at https://yourpartycambridge.uk/. Their next one is on 10 Oct 2025. Additionally, Zarah Sultana MP posted a video message to her party’s Cambridge members so while things may be progressing at an excruciatingly slow pace – much to the frustration of local members as Cllr Baigent posted recently, there are people here doing things.
Zack Polanski’s next visit to Cambridge – Sat 18 October 2025
I’m assuming that the event by ‘We Demand Change’ at the Mill Road Community Centre won’t be his only meeting on that day because Cambridge University’s Freshers’ Fair (where all the student societies set up stalls to meet the thousands of newly-arrived undergraduate and postgraduate students into the city) is on the 6-7 October – by which time all of the students should have arrived. That’s ideal timing for a recently-elected party leader to rock up to meet the new student members of the Cambridge Young Green Party.
“Who are ‘We Demand Change’?”
For those of you who keep a watching brief on the fun and games in the world of political protesting and campaigning (especially on/to the left of Labour), you may be aware of the articles stating that ‘We Demand Change’ was created by the SWP – that article saying that it was in early 2025 that the series of regional gatherings was going to be organised. It looks like this is the one for Cambridgeshire. Not surprisingly with their national party leader due to speak, the Cambridge & South Cambs Green Party are also encouraging their members & supporters to go.
“How much of a threat are either Your Party or The Green Party to Labour and Sir Keir?”
That depends on who you ask and what part of the country you are in. For some places it will be the loss of activists who dislike Sir Keir Starmer’s policies and actions that persuade them to stay in and not campaign. As has often happened in the past, a split vote between Labour and any left-of-Labour candidate can be the difference between election and non-election.
For The Greens, it’s even more nuanced because the general election returned 4 seats for them – two won off of Labour and Two won off of the Conservatives
How significant are the numbers switching from Labour? As Mick Channon says for the Byline Times East here, it’s not easy to pin down – not least because The Greens are nowhere near being in government yet. Furthermore, the continued centralisation of power means that there is not much the party can do even if it is in power.
Finally, Labour is beginning to acknowledge that the threat posed to them by The Greens cannot be ignored – as was discussed as such at their party conference here. (Although that article did not state much in the way of specifics. Combine that with the findings from the LSE on the impact that TV-broadcast political debates have on voter preferences.
Zack Polanski has been very much parking his political tanks on Labour’s lawn with a series of social media videos filmed during the course of Labour’s Party Conference. Generally these seem to have been well-received by viewers positively-disposed towards progressive politics. It remains to be seen what the conversion rates of the videos are, but judging by the recent rise in membership numbers to over 80,000 – quite possibly overtaking the Liberal Democrats’ total, we could see even more new faces on ballot papers at the local elections in May 2026.
We live in interesting [political] times
Food for thought?
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