Cambridge City Council expected to move to No Overall Control

Posted byCambridge Town OwlPosted inUncategorized

…according to various people quoting various polling and modelling organisations

This despite the best efforts of Cambridge Labour’s elected councillors (City and county) to hold the walls from the combined Lib-Dem and Green Party political onslaughts. (See Cameron Holloway, the current leader here.)

There wasn’t much coming from the local candidates whose politics are to the right-of Tony Blair.

Above – Phil noting the lack of local content in one of the very few Conservative leaflets in a constituency that was once a safe fortress in my lifetime.

Phil’s Quiz: Who will win and where?

Here’s what two different projecting companies said might happen:

My vague guesses if it’s a bad night for Labour

Abbey: – GREEN (hold)
Arbury: – LABOUR (hold)
Castle: – LIB DEMS (gain from Lab)
Cherry Hinton: – LABOUR (hold)
Coleridge: GREEN (gain from Lab)
East Chesterton: – LIB DEMS
King’s Hedges: – LABOUR (hold)
Market: – LIB DEMS (hold)
Newnham: – GREEN (gain from Lab)
Petersfield: – GREEN (gain from Lab)
Queen Edith’s: – LIB DEMS (hold)
Romsey: – GREEN (gain from Lab)
Trumpington (2 seats): – LIB DEMS x 2 (hold)
West Chesterton: – LIB DEMS (gain from Lab)

So that would make six Labour losses. If they lose 2 seats, Labour loses to no overall control.

This compares with the 2024 city council elections where Labour won nine of the 14 seats

I’m not claiming any in-depth research or community engagement, or in-depth conversations. I’ve been stuck indoors with a lurgy that has persistent rashes as a horrible symptom to the extent that I’ve got a little chemistry set of various pills, potions, ointments and things from the pharmacist to try and get through the worst – but this is the most persistent one I’ve had although I’ve been told to give it at least a week before going to my GP.

One other consideration: This is the final year of ‘Cambridge City Council’ in its current form – next year will be the elections to the ‘shadow authority’ that becomes the new Greater Cambridge Unitary Council.

Local elections as an opinion poll on national politics

The decline of local media is most visible when political reporters especially BBC News frame the whole thing through a national lens. It would be far better for the corporation to prevent their Westminster Bubble reporters from commenting on the local elections, and leave any news coverage of the local elections to their local reporting teams – thus raising the profiles of a new generation of reporters and journalists.

The incumbency factors

The broadcast media has framed this as a national opinion poll on central government – very similar to Gordon Brown in 2009. In which case few Labour councillors will have much of a chance unless they have very strong local personal followings. Hence why I think Coleridge Ward (my patch) will be one of the closest contests because the incumbent candidate Cllr Anna Smith is restanding. She faces Sarah Nicmanis of The Green Party who has contested the seat annually over several years, each year returning with more volunteers and resources. I’ve known both of them for years. As people in other wards told me, having two high calibre candidates contesting a ward makes a huge difference to community awareness of elections.

Labour’s nominal defences in Newnham and Romsey have new candidates who are unable to make the case for a strong personal elected councillor presence. (At least half of the seats will have new figures elected due to the retirement or relocation of party candidates) Hence these are the two most likely to go to the Greens. Cameron Holloway, the Leader of the Council is contesting Petersfield where Labour has stronger prospects. History is littered with examples of senior political figures looking for safer seats to contest. Cllr Holloway isn’t the first and won’t be the last. (Last year at the county council elections it was Cllr Lucy Nethsingha whose party transferred her candidacy from Newnham (later won by the Greens) to Cambourne for the Liberal Democrats – which she won. It happens. And voters can judge accordingly at the ballot box.

Party election boards much more prominent like in the olden days

Seeing houses on main roads having election boards posted by front gates and fences made the elections more visible to passing traffic and pedestrians. The only thing missing? Polling day! Happens every year. Each year I resolve to do something but then never get round to it – illness being the excuse this time. The big difference I hope to see is in turnout – irrespective of who wins.

“Any candidate-by-candidate questionnaires?”

Yes – from CamCycle as normal https://www.camcycle.org.uk/elections/2026maycambridgecitycouncil/ for Cambridge City Council where the two blue parties generally blanked the survey. Hardly anyone responded to the South Cambridgeshire survey at https://www.camcycle.org.uk/elections/2026maysouthcambsdistrictcouncil/ which is a shame because the more the public become familiar with candidates, the more ‘normal’ local democracy can become.

“Any independent candidates standing?”

Yes – more than normal. See CamCycle’s list for those council wards with six or more candidates (bar Trumpington). You can also pick out the independent/small party candidates ward by ward at https://whocanivotefor.co.uk/elections/local.cambridge.2026-05-07/cambridge-local-election/ by Democracy Club.

I’ll wait until the results are out before commenting on the results of neighbouring council.

If you are interested in the longer term future of Cambridge, and on what happens at the local democracy meetings where decisions are made, feel free to: